UPST AI stock prediction, Monte Carlo, and QML research
Upstart is a high-beta fintech and AI credit underwriting stock sensitive to lending demand, rates, and risk appetite.
Ticker
UPST
Exchange / Market
NASDAQ
Sector
AI lending technology
Theme
AI credit underwriting, consumer lending, and high-beta fintech
Today's Public Snapshot
UPST AI signal and IV regime
Latest backend snapshot: 2026-08-03. Data is rendered only when a public backend snapshot exists.
AI signal
Pending
Next-session model label
Up probability
-
55%+ Bullish, 45% or lower Bearish
IV regime
COMPRESSION
Options volatility context
IV view
Volatility compression
Opportunity score 82.9
How to read the UPST AI percentage
The percentage is the estimated probability that UPST closes higher in the next trading session. It is not a long-term price target and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Why IV regime appears before prediction
Options volatility helps separate directional momentum from market-implied risk. Reading IV first makes the AI signal easier to interpret in context.
Historical Accuracy
UPST historical prediction win rate
Win rate is calculated only from records where the next trading-day close has been verified.
Win rate
100.0%
insufficient_data
Monthly
100.0%
2026-07 3/3
Verified
3
Minimum 10
Correct
3
Next-session direction
High conf.
100.0%
1 verified records
Updated
2026-07-31
candidate model
UPST historical prediction records
| Date | Signal | Probability | Bucket | Last close | Actual next close | Change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Bearish | 48% | no edge | $27.44 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-21 | Bearish | 37% | high confidence | $29.27 | $28.64 | -2.15% | Correct |
| 2026-07-17 | Bearish | 45% | medium confidence | $29.51 | $28.82 | -2.34% | Correct |
| 2026-07-16 | Bearish | 45% | medium confidence | $30.88 | $29.51 | -4.44% | Correct |
Why Track It
Upstart research context
Track UPST when you want a volatile AI fintech signal with macro and credit-cycle sensitivity.
Research Angles
- UPST can move sharply with rate expectations and lending commentary.
- AI narrative strength may not offset credit-cycle risk.
- Monte Carlo and historical win rate checks are useful before sizing.
Workflow
How to research UPST
Start with the module that matches the question, then compare the signal against risk and benchmark context.
Step 1
Compare UPST with AI, SOUN, and QQQ for high-beta sentiment.
Step 2
Run AI Prediction for current directional probability.
Step 3
Use historical records to check verified model performance.
FAQ
UPST stock prediction FAQ
What is this UPST research page for?
This page organizes Upstart research around AI Prediction, options IV regime context, QML equity-curve diagnostics, historical prediction records, and Monte Carlo risk workflows.
What does the UPST AI prediction percentage mean?
The percentage is the model's estimated next-session up probability for UPST. Readings at 55% or higher are labeled Bullish, 45% or lower are labeled Bearish, and the middle range is Neutral.
How is UPST historical prediction win rate calculated?
Historical win rate only counts verified records where the next trading-day close is available. Pending predictions are not counted as wins or misses.
Why does this page show an IV regime for UPST?
The IV regime summarizes options-implied volatility context, including skew and demand, so the AI signal can be read beside market-implied risk.
Is this UPST page investment advice?
No. The page is for research and education only. It does not provide investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Related Research
Compare UPST with nearby tickers
AI
C3.ai
Track AI when you want a volatile AI application signal that can be compared with SOUN, BBAI, and PLTR.
SOUN
SoundHound AI
Track SOUN when you want to monitor speculative AI application exposure beyond the mega-cap semiconductor trade.
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust
Track QQQ when you want to know whether individual technology signals align with broad growth-market momentum.