QQQ AI stock prediction, Monte Carlo, and QML research
QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 and is a core benchmark for growth and mega-cap technology exposure. It is useful for interpreting AI and semiconductor stock signals.
Ticker
QQQ
Exchange / Market
NASDAQ
Sector
Growth and technology
Theme
Nasdaq-100 technology and growth-stock exposure
Today's Public Snapshot
QQQ AI signal and IV regime
Latest backend snapshot: 2026-08-03. Data is rendered only when a public backend snapshot exists.
AI signal
Pending
Next-session model label
Up probability
-
55%+ Bullish, 45% or lower Bearish
IV regime
BEARISH_SKEW
Options volatility context
IV view
Put demand elevated
Opportunity score 65.9
How to read the QQQ AI percentage
The percentage is the estimated probability that QQQ closes higher in the next trading session. It is not a long-term price target and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Why IV regime appears before prediction
Options volatility helps separate directional momentum from market-implied risk. Reading IV first makes the AI signal easier to interpret in context.
Historical Accuracy
QQQ historical prediction win rate
Win rate is calculated only from records where the next trading-day close has been verified.
Win rate
62.1%
active
Monthly
62.1%
2026-07 18/29
Verified
29
Minimum 10
Correct
18
Next-session direction
High conf.
50.0%
8 verified records
Updated
2026-08-03
candidate model
QQQ historical prediction records
| Date | Signal | Probability | Bucket | Last close | Actual next close | Change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Bullish | 55% | medium confidence | $696.00 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-31 | Bullish | 56% | medium confidence | $684.61 | $700.07 | 2.26% | Correct |
| 2026-07-30 | Bearish | 49% | no edge | $680.90 | $687.99 | 1.04% | Miss |
| 2026-07-29 | Bearish | 40% | high confidence | $667.15 | $683.55 | 2.46% | Miss |
| 2026-07-28 | Bearish | 41% | high confidence | $674.09 | $661.73 | -1.83% | Correct |
| 2026-07-27 | Bearish | 47% | no edge | $681.04 | $675.49 | -0.81% | Correct |
| 2026-07-27 | Bearish | 47% | no edge | $681.17 | $675.49 | -0.83% | Correct |
| 2026-07-24 | Bearish | 48% | no edge | $686.11 | $682.12 | -0.58% | Correct |
| 2026-07-24 | Bearish | 48% | no edge | $686.11 | $682.12 | -0.58% | Correct |
| 2026-07-23 | Bearish | 50% | no edge | $691.77 | $684.23 | -1.09% | Correct |
| 2026-07-22 | Bullish | 56% | medium confidence | $706.56 | $691.96 | -2.07% | Miss |
| 2026-07-21 | Bullish | 62% | high confidence | $706.81 | $705.35 | -0.21% | Miss |
| 2026-07-20 | Bullish | 56% | medium confidence | $704.97 | $708.97 | 0.57% | Correct |
| 2026-07-17 | Bullish | 51% | no edge | $693.22 | $696.06 | 0.41% | Correct |
| 2026-07-16 | Bullish | 55% | no edge | $711.50 | $695.33 | -2.27% | Miss |
| 2026-07-16 | Bullish | 55% | no edge | $711.50 | $695.33 | -2.27% | Miss |
| 2026-07-15 | Bullish | 60% | high confidence | $722.01 | $705.94 | -2.23% | Miss |
| 2026-07-14 | Bullish | 59% | high confidence | $719.73 | $717.74 | -0.28% | Miss |
| 2026-07-13 | Bullish | 61% | high confidence | $718.21 | $719.69 | 0.21% | Correct |
| 2026-07-10 | Bearish | 47% | no edge | $720.05 | $711.74 | -1.15% | Correct |
| 2026-07-10 | Bearish | 48% | no edge | $719.97 | $711.74 | -1.14% | Correct |
| 2026-07-09 | Bullish | 57% | high confidence | $719.43 | $725.51 | 0.85% | Correct |
| 2026-07-09 | Bullish | 57% | high confidence | $719.43 | $725.51 | 0.85% | Correct |
| 2026-07-08 | Bullish | 51% | no edge | $705.12 | $723.28 | 2.58% | Correct |
| 2026-07-08 | Bullish | 51% | no edge | $705.12 | $723.28 | 2.58% | Correct |
| 2026-07-07 | Bearish | 48% | no edge | $707.15 | $711.44 | 0.61% | Miss |
| 2026-07-07 | Bearish | 48% | no edge | $707.13 | $711.44 | 0.61% | Miss |
| 2026-07-06 | Bearish | 50% | no edge | $724.46 | $709.43 | -2.07% | Correct |
| 2026-07-06 | Bearish | 50% | no edge | $724.46 | $709.43 | -2.07% | Correct |
| 2026-07-02 | Bearish | 48% | no edge | $719.55 | $722.82 | 0.45% | Miss |
Why Track It
Invesco QQQ Trust research context
Track QQQ when you want to know whether individual technology signals align with broad growth-market momentum.
Research Angles
- QQQ can confirm or contradict signals from NVDA, AAPL, META, and GOOGL.
- QML equity curves help compare ETF-level trend quality with single-stock risk.
- Monte Carlo can frame index-like downside before macro or earnings clusters.
Workflow
How to research QQQ
Start with the module that matches the question, then compare the signal against risk and benchmark context.
Step 1
Use QQQ as a growth-market baseline in Batch Prediction.
Step 2
Compare QQQ and SPY in QML Dashboard.
Step 3
Run AI Prediction when deciding whether stock-specific signals have market support.
FAQ
QQQ stock prediction FAQ
What is this QQQ research page for?
This page organizes Invesco QQQ Trust research around AI Prediction, options IV regime context, QML equity-curve diagnostics, historical prediction records, and Monte Carlo risk workflows.
What does the QQQ AI prediction percentage mean?
The percentage is the model's estimated next-session up probability for QQQ. Readings at 55% or higher are labeled Bullish, 45% or lower are labeled Bearish, and the middle range is Neutral.
How is QQQ historical prediction win rate calculated?
Historical win rate only counts verified records where the next trading-day close is available. Pending predictions are not counted as wins or misses.
Why does this page show an IV regime for QQQ?
The IV regime summarizes options-implied volatility context, including skew and demand, so the AI signal can be read beside market-implied risk.
Is this QQQ page investment advice?
No. The page is for research and education only. It does not provide investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Related Research
Compare QQQ with nearby tickers
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Track SPY when you want a broad-market baseline for AI Prediction, QML equity curves, and risk analysis.
NVDA
NVIDIA
Track NVDA when you need a market-leading AI infrastructure signal and a reference point for semiconductor momentum.
AAPL
Apple
Track AAPL when you want a lower-volatility mega-cap technology reference point inside an AI and quant workflow.