TSM AI stock prediction, Monte Carlo, and QML research
TSM is a key foundry name for advanced chips and AI infrastructure supply chains.
Ticker
TSM
Exchange / Market
NYSE
Sector
Semiconductor foundry
Theme
advanced chip manufacturing, AI foundry demand, and global supply chains
Today's Public Snapshot
TSM AI signal and IV regime
Latest backend snapshot: 2026-08-03. Data is rendered only when a public backend snapshot exists.
AI signal
Pending
Next-session model label
Up probability
-
55%+ Bullish, 45% or lower Bearish
IV regime
COMPRESSION
Options volatility context
IV view
Volatility compression
Opportunity score 51.5
How to read the TSM AI percentage
The percentage is the estimated probability that TSM closes higher in the next trading session. It is not a long-term price target and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Why IV regime appears before prediction
Options volatility helps separate directional momentum from market-implied risk. Reading IV first makes the AI signal easier to interpret in context.
Historical Accuracy
TSM historical prediction win rate
Win rate is calculated only from records where the next trading-day close has been verified.
Win rate
53.8%
active
Monthly
53.8%
2026-07 7/13
Verified
13
Minimum 10
Correct
7
Next-session direction
High conf.
50.0%
8 verified records
Updated
2026-08-03
candidate model
TSM historical prediction records
| Date | Signal | Probability | Bucket | Last close | Actual next close | Change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Bearish | 49% | no edge | $406.19 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-31 | Bearish | 43% | high confidence | $405.21 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-30 | Bearish | 29% | high confidence | $396.50 | $404.49 | 2.02% | Miss |
| 2026-07-29 | Bearish | 22% | high confidence | $383.62 | $403.31 | 5.13% | Miss |
| 2026-07-28 | Bearish | 43% | high confidence | $383.41 | $374.75 | -2.26% | Correct |
| 2026-07-27 | Bearish | 27% | high confidence | $401.82 | $392.31 | -2.37% | Correct |
| 2026-07-24 | Bearish | 38% | high confidence | $405.74 | $399.27 | -1.59% | Correct |
| 2026-07-23 | Bearish | 50% | no edge | $420.51 | $403.62 | -4.02% | Correct |
| 2026-07-22 | Bullish | 54% | no edge | $421.21 | $415.58 | -1.34% | Miss |
| 2026-07-21 | Bullish | 53% | no edge | $418.75 | $421.12 | 0.56% | Correct |
| 2026-07-20 | Bearish | 27% | high confidence | $408.58 | $424.61 | 3.92% | Miss |
| 2026-07-17 | Bearish | 25% | high confidence | $390.11 | $402.53 | 3.18% | Miss |
| 2026-07-16 | Bearish | 39% | high confidence | $408.28 | $398.37 | -2.43% | Correct |
| 2026-07-15 | Bearish | 48% | no edge | $415.52 | $410.01 | -1.33% | Correct |
| 2026-07-13 | Bullish | 54% | no edge | $421.58 | $420.39 | -0.28% | Miss |
Why Track It
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing research context
Track TSM when you want to understand whether AI chip demand is visible beyond design houses and equipment stocks.
Research Angles
- Foundry demand can confirm or challenge AI semiconductor leadership.
- Geopolitical and supply-chain risk can widen the range around model signals.
- Batch comparisons with ASML, NVDA, and AMD help separate supply-chain signals.
Workflow
How to research TSM
Start with the module that matches the question, then compare the signal against risk and benchmark context.
Step 1
Compare TSM with ASML, NVDA, and AMD in Batch Prediction.
Step 2
Run AI Prediction for near-term direction.
Step 3
Use Monte Carlo to inspect range risk before position sizing.
FAQ
TSM stock prediction FAQ
What is this TSM research page for?
This page organizes Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing research around AI Prediction, options IV regime context, QML equity-curve diagnostics, historical prediction records, and Monte Carlo risk workflows.
What does the TSM AI prediction percentage mean?
The percentage is the model's estimated next-session up probability for TSM. Readings at 55% or higher are labeled Bullish, 45% or lower are labeled Bearish, and the middle range is Neutral.
How is TSM historical prediction win rate calculated?
Historical win rate only counts verified records where the next trading-day close is available. Pending predictions are not counted as wins or misses.
Why does this page show an IV regime for TSM?
The IV regime summarizes options-implied volatility context, including skew and demand, so the AI signal can be read beside market-implied risk.
Is this TSM page investment advice?
No. The page is for research and education only. It does not provide investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Related Research
Compare TSM with nearby tickers
ASML
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Track ASML when you want a long-cycle semiconductor equipment signal linked to AI chip capacity.
NVDA
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Track NVDA when you need a market-leading AI infrastructure signal and a reference point for semiconductor momentum.
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
Track AMD when you want a liquid AI semiconductor signal with both growth and cyclical components.