AMD AI stock prediction, Monte Carlo, and QML research
AMD is a major semiconductor name tied to data center, PC, gaming, and AI accelerator demand. It often trades in relation to NVDA and broader chip-sector momentum.
Ticker
AMD
Exchange / Market
NASDAQ
Sector
Semiconductors
Theme
CPUs, GPUs, data center chips, and AI accelerators
Today's Public Snapshot
AMD AI signal and IV regime
Latest backend snapshot: 2026-08-03. Data is rendered only when a public backend snapshot exists.
AI signal
Neutral
Next-session model label
Up probability
47%
55%+ Bullish, 45% or lower Bearish
IV regime
COMPRESSION
Options volatility context
IV view
Volatility compression
Opportunity score 65.5
How to read the AMD AI percentage
The percentage is the estimated probability that AMD closes higher in the next trading session. It is not a long-term price target and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Why IV regime appears before prediction
Options volatility helps separate directional momentum from market-implied risk. Reading IV first makes the AI signal easier to interpret in context.
Historical Accuracy
AMD historical prediction win rate
Win rate is calculated only from records where the next trading-day close has been verified.
Win rate
56.3%
active
Monthly
61.5%
2026-07 8/13
Verified
16
Minimum 10
Correct
9
Next-session direction
High conf.
33.3%
3 verified records
Updated
2026-08-03
candidate model
AMD historical prediction records
| Date | Signal | Probability | Bucket | Last close | Actual next close | Change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Bearish | 47% | no edge | $485.34 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-08-03 | Bearish | 47% | no edge | $485.34 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-31 | Bullish | 55% | no edge | $492.52 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-30 | Bearish | 50% | no edge | $491.23 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-29 | Bearish | 49% | no edge | $437.45 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-28 | Bullish | 51% | no edge | $449.80 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-27 | Bearish | 49% | no edge | $491.41 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-24 | Bearish | 48% | no edge | $526.38 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-24 | Bearish | 48% | no edge | $526.38 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-23 | Bearish | 44% | medium confidence | $543.23 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-23 | Bearish | 44% | medium confidence | $543.90 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-22 | Bearish | 47% | no edge | $553.53 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-22 | Bearish | 47% | no edge | $553.61 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-21 | Bullish | 56% | medium confidence | $529.35 | - | - | Pending |
| 2026-07-20 | Bullish | 51% | no edge | $520.99 | $544.43 | 4.50% | Correct |
| 2026-07-17 | Bearish | 50% | no edge | $481.52 | $503.57 | 4.58% | Miss |
| 2026-07-16 | Bullish | 56% | medium confidence | $506.65 | $495.76 | -2.15% | Miss |
| 2026-07-15 | Bearish | 45% | medium confidence | $551.35 | $500.94 | -9.14% | Correct |
| 2026-07-14 | Bearish | 44% | medium confidence | $556.20 | $529.14 | -4.86% | Correct |
| 2026-07-13 | Bearish | 45% | medium confidence | $546.90 | $548.13 | 0.22% | Miss |
| 2026-07-10 | Bearish | 39% | high confidence | $544.00 | $534.39 | -1.77% | Correct |
| 2026-07-09 | Bearish | 46% | no edge | $554.21 | $557.89 | 0.66% | Miss |
| 2026-07-08 | Bullish | 55% | no edge | $510.34 | $546.72 | 7.13% | Correct |
| 2026-07-07 | Bearish | 50% | no edge | $507.75 | $517.40 | 1.90% | Miss |
| 2026-07-06 | Bearish | 49% | no edge | $566.40 | $516.11 | -8.88% | Correct |
| 2026-07-02 | Bullish | 52% | no edge | $531.25 | $552.05 | 3.92% | Correct |
| 2026-07-01 | Bearish | 48% | no edge | $551.59 | $517.82 | -6.12% | Correct |
| 2026-06-30 | Bearish | 44% | medium confidence | $558.08 | $540.88 | -3.08% | Correct |
| 2026-06-29 | Bearish | 41% | high confidence | $514.26 | $580.91 | 12.96% | Miss |
| 2026-06-26 | Bearish | 33% | high confidence | $517.06 | $539.49 | 4.34% | Miss |
Why Track It
Advanced Micro Devices research context
Track AMD when you want a liquid AI semiconductor signal with both growth and cyclical components.
Research Angles
- Relative strength versus NVDA can show whether chip leadership is broadening.
- Batch Prediction can rank AMD against NVDA, MU, and SOXL.
- QML strategy diagnostics help avoid relying on a single narrative.
Workflow
How to research AMD
Start with the module that matches the question, then compare the signal against risk and benchmark context.
Step 1
Compare AMD with NVDA and MU in Batch Prediction.
Step 2
Use AI Prediction for short-term direction.
Step 3
Review QML equity curves for strategy persistence.
FAQ
AMD stock prediction FAQ
Does HPSILab cover options for AMD?
Yes. AMD is a US-listed NASDAQ stock with full options coverage, including implied volatility, Greeks, expected move, and option pressure analysis.
How should I read the AMD AI prediction alongside NVDA?
Compare the two in Batch Prediction rather than reading AMD in isolation — chip-sector momentum often moves both names together, so divergence between them is often the more informative signal.
Is this AMD research investment advice?
No. This page is for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Related Research
Compare AMD with nearby tickers
NVDA
NVIDIA
Track NVDA when you need a market-leading AI infrastructure signal and a reference point for semiconductor momentum.
MU
Micron Technology
Track MU when you want to understand whether AI infrastructure strength is spreading into memory and HBM supply chains.
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Track SOXL when you want a high-beta semiconductor signal and a stress test for chip-sector risk appetite.