Simulation interpretation
Probability of stock price exceeding $479.00 in the next 10 days ≈ 3.66%
Probabilistic scenario research
TSM Monte Carlo Forecast
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: a distribution of modeled outcomes, probability ranges and tail-risk estimates窶馬ot a single deterministic price target.
Horizon: Pending ﾂｷ Updated:
TSM simulated outcome snapshot
All figures depend on model assumptions and input data. Only verified API results are displayed.
- Support
- $403.5
- Threshold
- $479
- Resistance
- $479
- Mean terminal price
- $418.62
- Median terminal price
- $417.56
- Lower bound
- $366.48
- Upper bound
- $473.72
- Probability below threshold
- 96.34%
- Probability above threshold
- 3.66%
- Simulation volatility
- 2.48%
- Tomorrow standard deviation
- 10.15
- Simulated paths
- 5,000
Modeled range
The API range is $366.48 to $473.72, with support at $403.5 and resistance at $479. These are modeled levels, not guarantees.
Threshold probability
The model estimates 3.66% above and 96.34% below the stated threshold. Confidence interval input: 0.9.
Model limitations
Results depend on return distribution, volatility, horizon and sampling choices. Structural breaks, gaps and liquidity shocks may not be represented.