Simulation interpretation
Probability of stock price exceeding $302.00 in the next 10 days ≈ 0.18%
Probabilistic scenario research
SOXL Monte Carlo Forecast
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares: a distribution of modeled outcomes, probability ranges and tail-risk estimates窶馬ot a single deterministic price target.
Horizon: Pending ﾂｷ Updated:
SOXL simulated outcome snapshot
All figures depend on model assumptions and input data. Only verified API results are displayed.
- Support
- $138
- Threshold
- $302
- Resistance
- $302
- Mean terminal price
- $152.32
- Median terminal price
- $147.91
- Lower bound
- $97.34
- Upper bound
- $222.65
- Probability below threshold
- 99.82%
- Probability above threshold
- 0.18%
- Simulation volatility
- 8.03%
- Tomorrow standard deviation
- 11.43
- Simulated paths
- 5,000
Modeled range
The API range is $97.34 to $222.65, with support at $138 and resistance at $302. These are modeled levels, not guarantees.
Threshold probability
The model estimates 0.18% above and 99.82% below the stated threshold. Confidence interval input: 0.9.
Model limitations
Results depend on return distribution, volatility, horizon and sampling choices. Structural breaks, gaps and liquidity shocks may not be represented.