Simulation interpretation
Probability of stock price exceeding $618.17 in the next 10 days ≈ 9.22%
Probabilistic scenario research
SMH Monte Carlo Forecast
SMH: a distribution of modeled outcomes, probability ranges and tail-risk estimates — not a single deterministic price target.
Horizon: 10 trading days · Updated:
SMH simulated outcome snapshot
All figures depend on model assumptions and input data. Only verified API results are displayed.
- Support
- $503.63
- Threshold
- $618.17
- Resistance
- $618.17
- Mean terminal price
- $558.99
- Median terminal price
- $557.2
- Lower bound
- $490.77
- Upper bound
- $632.18
- Probability below threshold
- 90.78%
- Probability above threshold
- 9.22%
- Simulation volatility
- 2.43%
- Tomorrow standard deviation
- 13.24
- Simulated paths
- 5,000
Modeled range
The API range is $490.77 to $632.18, with support at $503.63 and resistance at $618.17. These are modeled levels, not guarantees.
Threshold probability
The model estimates 9.22% above and 90.78% below the stated threshold. Confidence interval input: 0.9.
Model limitations
Results depend on return distribution, volatility, horizon and sampling choices. Structural breaks, gaps and liquidity shocks may not be represented.