Simulation interpretation
Probability of stock price exceeding $186.40 in the next 10 days ≈ 24.92%
Probabilistic scenario research
XLK Monte Carlo Forecast
XLK: a distribution of modeled outcomes, probability ranges and tail-risk estimates — not a single deterministic price target.
Horizon: 10 trading days · Updated:
XLK simulated outcome snapshot
All figures depend on model assumptions and input data. Only verified API results are displayed.
- Support
- $166.46
- Threshold
- $186.4
- Resistance
- $186.4
- Mean terminal price
- $180.31
- Median terminal price
- $180.05
- Lower bound
- $165.55
- Upper bound
- $196.02
- Probability below threshold
- 75.08%
- Probability above threshold
- 24.92%
- Simulation volatility
- 1.61%
- Tomorrow standard deviation
- 2.86
- Simulated paths
- 5,000
Modeled range
The API range is $165.55 to $196.02, with support at $166.46 and resistance at $186.4. These are modeled levels, not guarantees.
Threshold probability
The model estimates 24.92% above and 75.08% below the stated threshold. Confidence interval input: 0.9.
Model limitations
Results depend on return distribution, volatility, horizon and sampling choices. Structural breaks, gaps and liquidity shocks may not be represented.