Simulation interpretation
Probability of stock price exceeding $60.45 in the next 10 days ≈ 36.00%
Probabilistic scenario research
XLE Monte Carlo Forecast
XLE: a distribution of modeled outcomes, probability ranges and tail-risk estimates — not a single deterministic price target.
Horizon: 10 trading days · Updated:
XLE simulated outcome snapshot
All figures depend on model assumptions and input data. Only verified API results are displayed.
- Support
- $53.6
- Threshold
- $60.45
- Resistance
- $60.45
- Mean terminal price
- $59.58
- Median terminal price
- $59.54
- Lower bound
- $55.6
- Upper bound
- $63.8
- Probability below threshold
- 64%
- Probability above threshold
- 36%
- Simulation volatility
- 1.32%
- Tomorrow standard deviation
- 0.78
- Simulated paths
- 5,000
Modeled range
The API range is $55.6 to $63.8, with support at $53.6 and resistance at $60.45. These are modeled levels, not guarantees.
Threshold probability
The model estimates 36% above and 64% below the stated threshold. Confidence interval input: 0.9.
Model limitations
Results depend on return distribution, volatility, horizon and sampling choices. Structural breaks, gaps and liquidity shocks may not be represented.