Simulation interpretation
Probability of stock price exceeding $85.17 in the next 10 days ≈ 2.12%
Probabilistic scenario research
TLT Monte Carlo Forecast
TLT: a distribution of modeled outcomes, probability ranges and tail-risk estimates — not a single deterministic price target.
Horizon: 10 trading days · Updated:
TLT simulated outcome snapshot
All figures depend on model assumptions and input data. Only verified API results are displayed.
- Support
- $81.89
- Threshold
- $85.17
- Resistance
- $85.17
- Mean terminal price
- $81.99
- Median terminal price
- $81.98
- Lower bound
- $79.5
- Upper bound
- $84.5
- Probability below threshold
- 97.88%
- Probability above threshold
- 2.12%
- Simulation volatility
- 0.6%
- Tomorrow standard deviation
- 0.49
- Simulated paths
- 5,000
Modeled range
The API range is $79.5 to $84.5, with support at $81.89 and resistance at $85.17. These are modeled levels, not guarantees.
Threshold probability
The model estimates 2.12% above and 97.88% below the stated threshold. Confidence interval input: 0.9.
Model limitations
Results depend on return distribution, volatility, horizon and sampling choices. Structural breaks, gaps and liquidity shocks may not be represented.