Simulation interpretation
Probability of stock price exceeding $755.58 in the next 10 days ≈ 50.44%
Probabilistic scenario research
SPY Monte Carlo Forecast
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: a distribution of modeled outcomes, probability ranges and tail-risk estimates窶馬ot a single deterministic price target.
Horizon: Pending ﾂｷ Updated:
SPY simulated outcome snapshot
All figures depend on model assumptions and input data. Only verified API results are displayed.
- Support
- $716.58
- Threshold
- $755.58
- Resistance
- $755.58
- Mean terminal price
- $756.2
- Median terminal price
- $755.8
- Lower bound
- $724.95
- Upper bound
- $789.28
- Probability below threshold
- 49.56%
- Probability above threshold
- 50.44%
- Simulation volatility
- 0.79%
- Tomorrow standard deviation
- 5.96
- Simulated paths
- 5,000
Modeled range
The API range is $724.95 to $789.28, with support at $716.58 and resistance at $755.58. These are modeled levels, not guarantees.
Threshold probability
The model estimates 50.44% above and 49.56% below the stated threshold. Confidence interval input: 0.9.
Model limitations
Results depend on return distribution, volatility, horizon and sampling choices. Structural breaks, gaps and liquidity shocks may not be represented.