Simulation interpretation
Probability of stock price exceeding $287.16 in the next 10 days ≈ 48.74%
Probabilistic scenario research
AMZN Monte Carlo Forecast
AMZN: a distribution of modeled outcomes, probability ranges and tail-risk estimates — not a single deterministic price target.
Horizon: 10 trading days · Updated:
AMZN simulated outcome snapshot
All figures depend on model assumptions and input data. Only verified API results are displayed.
- Support
- $226.16
- Threshold
- $287.16
- Resistance
- $287.16
- Mean terminal price
- $287.11
- Median terminal price
- $286.69
- Lower bound
- $256.42
- Upper bound
- $320.05
- Probability below threshold
- 51.26%
- Probability above threshold
- 48.74%
- Simulation volatility
- 2.14%
- Tomorrow standard deviation
- 6.07
- Simulated paths
- 5,000
Modeled range
The API range is $256.42 to $320.05, with support at $226.16 and resistance at $287.16. These are modeled levels, not guarantees.
Threshold probability
The model estimates 48.74% above and 51.26% below the stated threshold. Confidence interval input: 0.9.
Model limitations
Results depend on return distribution, volatility, horizon and sampling choices. Structural breaks, gaps and liquidity shocks may not be represented.