fab utilizationCompare this signal across expirations and against TSM / INTC before treating it as durable positioning.
government incentivesCompare this signal across expirations and against TSM / INTC before treating it as durable positioning.
customer concentrationCompare this signal across expirations and against TSM / INTC before treating it as durable positioning.
Definitions and methodology
Implied volatility
An annualized volatility estimate derived from option prices. Higher IV means the market is pricing a wider distribution of outcomes; it is not a directional forecast.
IV versus HV
IV reflects option-implied future variability, while HV measures realized historical movement. Their spread indicates the premium priced over recent experience.
Risk reversal
The 25-delta risk reversal compares call and put implied volatility. It summarizes skew but cannot identify whether contracts were bought, sold, opened or closed.
Term structure
Near- and far-month volatility indicate how event risk is distributed across expirations. Calendar comparisons should use consistent strikes and methods.